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For upwards of a century, international business has been on a particularly steep trajectory toward interrelatedness and complexity, as companies sought to tap new opportunities for profitability. Year by year, the production of goods has grown to involve more locations at greater distances, requiring more logistical maneuvering.
Times change, however, and many businesses in the U.S. and elsewhere today find themselves entangled in a web of interdependence and overhead — one that feels every shockwave from a rapidly shifting world.
An endless series of trade wars, armed conflicts, supply-chain crises and global pandemics have left many businesses wary of their reliance on overseas production. So where do they turn after decades of outsourcing to Asia? In many cases, the resounding answer is Mexico.
Businesses in the U.S., Canada, and even South America have been bringing their supply chains closer to the consumer — that is, nearshoring — and Mexico has been the beneficiary. Following are five numbers to demonstrate how significant this movement has been.
In 2023, Mexico supplanted China as the number-one exporter to the U.S., with a 15% share of U.S. imports. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, China’s 13% share was only good enough to register at third place in the first quarter of the year, after Canada. While China’s 8% drop since 2018 is certainly indicative of its own struggles in maintaining trade with the West, it also underscores the nearshoring boom and the growing role of Mexico as a cornerstone of U.S. production.
Mexico’s foreign direct investment was up 30% last year, with $33 billion in Q3. According to a Q3 report by the Mexican Ministry of Economy, Mexico boasted FDI of $32.9 billion — a 30% increase from the same quarter in 2022.
Forty-eight percent of Mexico’s FDI in 2022 came from new investments. To understand the drive behind that growth, one must look at where it came from. Nearly half was made by companies that had no former presence in the country, and who chose to relocate their operations to Mexico.
Industrial property demand is projected to show a near 80% increase. A report by the Mexican Association of Private Industrial Parks (AMPIP) estimated that industrial property demand for the 2023-2024 season was an astounding 2.5 million square meters. The growth is attributed in large part to manufacturing sectors such as the automotive and electronics industries, both of which have seen significant nearshoring investment in recent years.
Manufacturing production now constitutes nearly 17% of Mexico’s GDP. Reports from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) state that the nation’s manufacturing industry has more than bounced back from its pre-pandemic, sub-16% share. A 5.2% annual industry growth rate in 2022 was more than double the 2.3% 10-year average. Taken together with the fact that manufacturing firms make up 18% of all companies to benefit from nearshoring, a survey by Banco de Mexico suggests a trend of steady growth in the wake of increased foreign investment.
Mexico is currently experiencing the explosive effects of the nearshoring trend. Drastic change is underway, and there’s growth yet to be had. Just as in decades past the appeal of a vast international market led businesses to outsource to the farthest corners of the globe, those very same companies are now realizing the potential of bringing production closer to home.
Jorge Gonzalez Henrichsen is co-chief executive officer of The Nearshore Company.
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